summarised by The Centrist
Journalist Graham Adams says its a mystery how, despite widespread concerns about crime, education, homelessness, health, roads, and race-based policy (including co-governance), Labour has seemingly stayed neck and neck with National in the polls. Adding to Labour’s troubles is the fact Hipkins has lost three ministers in the first five months of his leadership.
What’s also puzzling is that the polls don’t correspond with mounting anecdotal evidence, which says people are fed up with Labour. Nor do they correspond with an 8 per cent fall in the public’s rating of the government’s performance in the four months after Hipkins became leader; the lowest rating since Labour came to power in 2017.
But pollsters often get it wrong. Auckland’s mayoral battle between Wayne Brown and Efeso Collins last October was billed as a tight race but Brown won with 45 per cent more votes than Collins.
What’s perhaps telling is that Australia’s largest online bookmaker will pay $1.45 for a National win in October but $2.75 for a Labour win.
Adams also suggests journalists are often seen as favouring the left.